Politicsweb.co.za
The Democratic Alliance led by Helen Zille is on course to win the Western Cape in the 2009 elections. This is according to the results of an opinion poll released by Ipsos-Markinor on Monday. The poll was conducted in October 2008 shortly before the formal launch of the Congress of the People (COPE.) It found that DA support in the Western Cape stood at 42,8%. The ANC meanwhile received the support of 26% of those polled. 15,2% of respondents said they were undecided as to whom they would support.
This is an inversion of the support patterns that prevailed before the 2004 election. A Markinor poll conducted at the equivalent period before that election - in October/November 2003 - found the ANC had the support of 32% of likely voters in the province, as compared to the 16% of respondents who said they would vote DA. The ANC went on to win 45,25% of the vote in the Western Cape in April 2004, the DA 27,1% and the now defunct New National Party 10,9% (see Table 1).
The ANC's difficulties in the province do not end there. In her report on the poll Ipsos-Markinor's Mari Harris notes that "18% of ANC supporters in the Western Cape indicated that they might vote for an opposition party in the 2009 election. Should some of these intentions convert into action, the ANC could see some of its support going to COPE and other parties in the Western Cape."
The news is better for the ANC in Jacob Zuma's home province of KwaZulu Natal. This is the only other province where the ruling party failed to win an outright majority in 2004. The October 2008 poll found that the ANC enjoyed the support of 64,3% of likely voters, as opposed to 15,2% for the IPF, and 8,7% for the DA.
Only 7,1% of respondents said they were uncertain as to whom to vote for. By contrast in October 2003 Markinor found that the ANC enjoyed the support of 50% of respondents in KZN, as opposed to 20% for the IFP, and 10% for the DA. (See Table 2)
The one word of caution needed here is that opinion polls consistently underestimate support for the IFP. In 2004 the ANC only ended up winning 47% of the popular vote in the province, as opposed to the 36,8% won by the IFP. Harris notes that even in this province "it must be a concern to the ANC that 14% of their supporters could be voting for the opposition in the next election."
In Gauteng the Ipsos-Markinor poll found that the ANC enjoyed the support of 59% of respondents, the same as in October 2003. DA support was also similar at 18,6% (2008) as opposed to the 19% it polled in 2003. However, the percentage of uncertain likely voters was higher this time around at 17,2% in contrast to the 11% who were unable to give an answer in October 2003. (See Table 3)
Harris notes that in Gauteng "16% of ANC supporters reported that they would consider voting for an opposition party in the upcoming election. Early indications are that the ANC will not take this province easily and would either have to work very hard at wooing back their supporters during the election campaign or should start looking for coalition partners to govern the province after the election."
In all the other traditionally ANC supporting provinces - with the exception of Mpumalanga - support for the ruling party is slightly down compared to October/November 2003, with the number of uncertain likely voters slightly up. In all these provinces between 11% and 19% of ANC supporters say they might vote for an opposition party in the 2009 election. (The sample size for the Northern Cape was too small to draw valid conclusions.)
Table 1. Western Cape opinion polls and election results
Markinor poll Election Markinor poll
Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-08
DA 16 27.11 42.8
ANC 32 45.25 26
ID 10 7.84 7.9
ACDP 3 3.44 1.8
PAC 1 0.42 1.2
IFP 0 0.14 1.1
FF+ * 0.62 1.1
AMP * 0.7 0.9
UDM 2 1.75 0.4
NNP 15 10.88 -
Other 4 1.85 1.6
Uncertain 17 0 15.2
Table 2. KwaZulu Natal opinion polls and election results
Markinor poll Election Markinor poll
Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-08
ANC 50 46.98 59
IFP 20 36.82 18.6
DA 10 8.35 8.7
ACDP 1 1.78 2.1
MF * 2.61 1.4
ID * 0.49 0.6
UDM * 0.75 0.3
FF+ 1 0.28 0.1
PAC * 0.19 0
NNP 2 0.52 0
Other 2 1.23 0.2
Uncertain 15 7.1
Table 3. Gauteng opinion polls and election results
Markinor poll Election Markinor poll
Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-08
ANC 59 68.4 59
DA 19 20.78 18.6
IFP 1 2.51 1.1
ID 2 1.52 1.1
UDM 1 0.99 0.8
ACDP 1 1.64 0.8
FF+ * 1.34 0.3
PAC 1 0.85 0.2
NNP 3 0.76 -
Other 2 1.97 0.9
Uncertain 11 0 17.2
Give us the vote . . .
The South African, the only newspaper for South Africans living abroad tells us that SAYFA, a democratic organization formed by SA youth based in the UK, are organizing a march to the South African High Commission .
Their aim is to mobilize expats and create awareness of the plight of South Africans living abroad who want to cast their votes on election day.
The organizers feel that the IEC should consider the large number of expats living abroad . . . and say that Helen Zille has asked Brigalia Bam to interpret the provisions of the IEC broadly to include South Africans living abroad and for registration opportunities to be provided for those voters.
SAYFA president, Zolani Xala says “The fact that Bam is giving positive consideration to Zille’s request is excellent news. But for us the key question is not just about receiving consideration. We need to see concrete results. We want the IEC to announce the dates for registration abroad. We want to know that as South Africans living abroad, we will vote in the 2009 elections”.
In truth, people can generally make time for what they choose to do; it is not really the time but the will that is lacking."
Sir John Lubbock
Quotes from Parliament . . .
Dianne Kohler Barnard MP
“And in order to disabuse blue-light-bullies of the notion that they are above the law, I have asked that a code of conduct should be developed for the VIP unit over and above the existing SAPS Code of Conduct and Code of Ethics. Such a code must, among other things, require VIP members never to exceed the speed limit, except in cases of extreme emergency; break any other rules of the road; intimidate or in any way threaten other motorists; or brandish firearms from within moving vehicles.”
Sandy Kalyan MP
“Health Minister Barbara Hogan must now be open with the South African public and outline her plans to turn around the department so that it can begin to deliver on this important mandate.”
Helen Zille
“President Motlanthe’s decision to fire Advocate Pikoli without justifiable explanation has all the hallmarks of a cover-up. The President has ignored the Ginwala Commission’s recommendation that Pikoli should remain in office and instead used its findings selectively in the pursuance of a narrow political agenda.
Given the fact that it was Pikoli who decided to charge Jacob Zuma, the inevitable inference is that President Motlanthe has fired an independently-minded National Director of Public Prosecutions (NDPP) to replace him with one who will do the ANC’s bidding in respect of the prosecution of Jacob Zuma. As such, Motlanthe has failed the first real test of his Presidency, which was to put South Africa’s interests before the narrow interests of the Zuma faction of the ANC.”
Mike Waters MP
“The Democratic Alliance (DA) has written to the Health Professions Council of South Africa (HPCSA) and the Minister of Health to ask them to review a large fee that the council demands of doctors, nurses and other health professionals who have left the medical profession and want to re-enter it.
In an environment where South Africa is desperately trying to attract health professionals who have left the country or gone into other fields, it defies all logic that penalty fees should be demanded of returning health professionals. The HPCSA and the Minister can take a small step towards solving South Africa's medical brain drain by scrapping re-registration fees entirely.”
Donald Lee MP
“It is outrageous that a reply to a Democratic Alliance (DA) parliamentary question shows that the South African Sports Confederation and Olympics Committee (SASCOC) has a policy which entitles its board members to fly business class to events at which the organization presents a team while all athletes use economy class. This follows fresh on the heels of complaints by members of the South African Paralympic Team about how they were made to travel uncomfortably in economy class to the 2008 Paralympic Games in Beijing.”
Tertius Delport MP
“The Democratic Alliance strongly believes that President Kgalema Motlanthe has no choice but to remove the Director-General of the Department of Justice Mr Menzi Simelane, from office with immediate effect, in the light of the damning findings of the Ginwala Commission about his conduct. The Commission found that Mr. Simelane was ‘dishonest’ and ‘reckless’ in his submissions to the Commission and interaction with the head of the National Prosecution Authority, and that, furthermore, he misled the Minister of Justice.
By the government’s own admission the criminal justice system is dysfunctional. President Motlanthe needs to confirm that the government is serious in its commitment to improve the functioning of this system. He cannot do this if he retains Mr. Simelane in the pivotal role of director-general while it is alleged that he has acted dishonestly and has fundamentally misunderstood the powers and functions of his office. For the country to win the war against crime, the criminal justice system must be led by individuals who are above reproach.”
DA’s annual parliamentary audit
The DA has achieved – again! It has proven that it is the driving force behind oversight in Parliament and the only viable alternative to the ANC government.
Some key findings on the DA achievements include:
• Produced 35 new policy and discussion documents in 2008
• An overview of the criminal justice system
• Steps to weather the economic crisis
• Five steps to fight crime
• Proposals to reverse the brain drain in the public health sector
• An alternative budget
• Released policy documents on crime, education, poverty alleviation and sports development in South Africa
• Submitted 1 512 (of 1 757) written questions which equated to 86% and represents an average of 32 questions per DA MP. The DA submitted 1 500 more written questions than the governing party - the next three highest numbers of questions submitted were 93, 84 and 34
• Introduced 36 (76.6%) of the 47 motions in the National Assembly and 16 (36%) of the 45 motions in the NCOP.
• Introduced two Private Member’s Bills – only one other opposition party introduced Private Member’s Bill in 2008
• Supported 14 budgets and opposed 20 (six with a division) of the 34 votes - called for all six divisions and made 15 declarations. Eight out of the 13 other opposition parties supported all 34 ANC budget votes and eight made no declarations at all.
A full audit document is available from Lindiwem@da.org.za
Please supply your news to Eve Viol on eveviol@ecleg.gov.za or fax 040 639 2424
[ add comment ]
STATEMENT BY HELEN ZILLE
LEADER OF THE DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE
By-election results show that the DA is the real alternative to the ANC
Release, immediate: Thursday, 11 December 2008
Yesterday’s by-election results show that the DA is on track to be a party of government in 2009 and beyond. Voters looking for a real alternative to the ANC are finding a home in the DA.
The results confirm that we are gaining voters who have not traditionally supported us and retaining the support of those who have. We have significantly increased our share of the vote in the wards we contested, gaining support in black, coloured and white communities.
The numbers show that our message of one nation, one future is resonating across the board:
In the Western Cape, the DA won 9 out of 18 wards previously held by the ANC. 4 of these 9 wards were contested by the ANC.
The DA has registered significant increases in support in black wards. In Kosovo in Cape Town, the DA increased its share of the vote from 0.3% (26 votes) in 2006 to 25% (528 votes). In Langa, the DA increased its support from 2.2% in 2006 to 16.5%.
There is a huge swing away from the ID to the DA in Cape Town. In Mitchells Plein, the DA won 91.5% of the vote (up from 42.5% in 2006) compared to the ID’s 4.9% (down from 30.7% in 2006). In Mannenberg, the DA won 66.9% (up from 38.8% in 2006) compared to the ID’s 15.9% (down from 22.2% in 2006)
The results show that COPE is splitting the ANC vote. COPE is not eating into the DA’s support base.
The DA retained its seats in Cullinan (Gauteng) and Howick (KwaZulu-Natal) with a greater share of the vote.
DA victories in 3 wards in the Cederberg and 2 wards in the Theewaterskloof municipalities mean that we now hold an absolute majority in those Councils.
The 2009 election promises to be a watershed in South African politics. Never before has the political terrain been so fluid and not since 1994 has the appetite for change been so great. We look forward to taking our offer of an open, opportunity society for all to every voter in South Africa next year.
Media enquiries:
Frits de Klerk – 082 320 1890
[ add comment ]
STATEMENT BY SANDRA BOTHA, MP
DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE PARLIAMENTARY LEADER,
2008 audit shows DA outperforms all other parties in Parliament
Release, immediate: Tuesday, 09 December, 2008
In an Open, Opportunity Society for All, opposition parties have two distinct but equally important roles to play:
Firstly, they must present the voters with an alternative to the incumbent governing party by demonstrating what they can and will do in government, and by regularly promoting the policies and programmes of action which they consider to be in the best interests of the country and its citizens.
Secondly, they must protect the Constitution by providing checks and balances on the government’s power; they must ensure that the government remains transparent, delivers what it has promised to its voters, and is accountable for its actions and failures at all times.
As a party that is already in government in Cape Town, as well as in many other municipalities throughout South Africa; and as a party which is likely to govern in various provinces after next year’s election, the Democratic Alliance’s (DA) role is not only to act as a watchdog over the current government, but also to position ourselves to replace it in the future.
The DA’s annual parliamentary audit, which we are releasing today, demonstrates the fact that we remain the only opposition party capable of achieving this goal and positioning ourselves at the centre of a national government coalition in the near future.
This audit outlines the significant number of new policy alternatives, reports, and discussion documents which we have produced during 2008, and also evaluates the DA’s performance in Parliament over the last year. The statistics in this document illustrate that it is no exaggeration to say that if the DA were removed from Parliament, the institution’s oversight and accountability role would be rendered virtually non-existent - largely because other opposition parties are failing to fulfill their oversight responsibilities.
Key findings in the report include the following (statistics include all parties represented in Parliament – including the ANC):
Policy Documents: The DA produced some 35 new policy and discussion documents in 2008, including an overview of the criminal justice system, steps to weather the economic crisis, five steps to fight crime, proposals to reverse the brain drain in the public health sector, and an alternative budget. We have also released our policy documents on crime, education, poverty alleviation and sports development in South Africa.
Parliamentary Questions - Written: The DA was responsible for the overwhelming majority - 1 512 (or 86%) - of the 1757 written questions submitted in the National Assembly (NA). This represents an average of 32 questions per DA MP. Across all parties, the next three highest numbers of questions submitted were: 93, 84 and 34. Six opposition parties submitted no questions in 2008. It is worth noting that the DA - with 57 members as opposed to the 298 of the ANC - submitted exactly 1500 more written questions than the governing party.
Motions: The DA leads all other political parties in both Houses. We introduced 36 (or 76.6%) of the 47 motions introduced in the NA and 16 (or 36%) of the 45 introduced in the National Council of Provinces (NCOP).
Private Members’ Legislative Proposals: The DA introduced two Private Member’s Bills in 2008. Only one other opposition party introduced Private Member’s Bills in 2008.
Budget Votes: The DA supported 14 budgets and opposed 20 (six with a division) of the 34 votes. We called for all six divisions and made 15 declarations. Eight out of the 13 other opposition parties supported all 34 ANC budget votes and eight made no declarations at all.
It is important to view the DA’s performance within the context of a series of important trends which prevailed during 2008:
Firstly, Parliament has increasingly failed to fulfill its constitutional responsibilities of ensuring oversight over the Executive, holding the Executive collectively and individually accountable at all times, ensuring that issues of a national significance are debated and considered, and making sure that the public is properly consulted and its views taken into account before every piece of legislation is passed.
This was exacerbated by the ANC’s success in using its parliamentary majority to virtually shut down the legislature for the last half of the year, thereby reducing the number of plenary sessions in 2008 to around 45; 25 fewer sessions than last year. This left members with fewer opportunities to pose written questions, and resulted in members of the Executive only appearing once in the entire year to answer oral questions in both Houses.
Despite this trend, however, the DA continued to make use of these oversight mechanisms to the best of its ability, in order to ensure that the government continued to be held accountable; in so doing, we were able to improve on our performance from 2007 in a number of instances.
The second trend stemmed from the ANC’s increasing disdain for Parliament, both as an institution, and as one of the primary guardians of South Africa’s Constitution and the principles which underpin our democracy. In the first place, the ANC used its majority presence in the legislature to pass a parliamentary programme which shut the institution down for the last half of the year, so that it could pursue its own interests in its constituencies before next year’s elections.
Secondly - despite reducing the time allocated for parliamentary committees to consider bills, consult the public on legislation, and for the NA and the NCOP to then consider and pass the legislation - the ANC pushed through a number of controversial pieces of legislation, including the Scorpions Bills and the South African Broadcasting Bill, during 2008. In doing so, the ANC turned Parliament into nothing more than a rubber stamp for its own party political interests.
Lastly, the majority party has 297 members, and yet between them, in an entire parliamentary year, it managed to ask just 12 written questions (1500 less than the DA), and failed to propose a single subject for debate, thereby highlighting the complete disregard that the ANC has for Parliament’s oversight mechanisms and for promoting debate on the important issues affecting all of our people.
The third trend relates to the poor performance of the other opposition parties in the National Assembly, who have been mandated to hold the Executive to account by the citizens who cast votes for them. Many are fundamentally failing to fulfill this crucial obligation. Those who do carry out some oversight do so in an ad hoc and inconsistent fashion, and virtually all behave with unusual deference towards the majority party and the executive, showing little or no evidence of policies which could offer their voters an alternative to the ANC government.
The following five parties in the National Assembly did not ask a single written or oral question, introduce a single Private Member’s Bill or propose a single motion during the whole of 2008: Azanian People’s Organisation (AZAPO), the African People’s Convention (APC), the United Christian Democratic Party (UCDP), the National Democratic Convention (NDC), and the National Alliance (NA).
The question that must be asked is: what are these smaller opposition parties doing in Parliament and for the South Africans who have voted them into office?
With these trends in mind, and on the basis of the evidence contained in this document, there can be little doubt that among South Africa’s opposition parties, the DA is the driving force behind oversight in Parliament and the production of alternative policies to address South Africa’s range of problems.
In other words, the DA is the only opposition party fulfilling the two roles required of it, and is therefore the only viable alternative to the ANC government.
MEDIA ENQUIRIES:
Sandra Botha, MP – 083 407 5151
Lindiwe Mazibuko – 072 805 2220
[ add comment ]
Search
